Logo

Stochastic Optimal Control, and U.S. Debt Crises

Small book cover: Stochastic Optimal Control, and U.S. Debt Crises

Stochastic Optimal Control, and U.S. Debt Crises
by

Publisher: Springer
ISBN/ASIN: 146143078X
ISBN-13: 9781461430780
Number of pages: 180

Description:
Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC) is very helpful in understanding and predicting debt crises. The mathematical analysis is applied empirically to the financial debt crisis of 2008, the crises of the 1980s and concludes with an analysis of the European debt crisis. I use SOC to derive a theoretically founded quantitative measure of an optimal, and an excessive leverage/ debt/ risk that increases the probability of a crisis. The optimal leverage balances risk against expected growth. The environment is stochastic: the capital gain, productivity of capital and interest rate are stochastic variables, and for an insurance company, such as AIG, the claims are also stochastic. I associate the housing price bubble with the growth of household debt. A bubble is dangerous insofar as it induces a non-sustainable debt. This danger is exacerbated insofar as a complex financial system is based upon it.

Home page url

Download or read it online for free here:
Download link
(multiple PDF files)

Similar books

Book cover: The Elements of Input-Output AnalysisThe Elements of Input-Output Analysis
by - Random House Inc
This volume is designed to give the reader an understanding of how the input-output system works; it is not a guide to the construction of an interindustry transactions table. Most of this book deals with a static, open input-output model.
(4895 views)
Book cover: Computable General Equilibrium Modeling for Regional AnalysisComputable General Equilibrium Modeling for Regional Analysis
by - Regional Research Institute, WVU
CGE framework encompasses both the I-O and SAM frameworks by making demand and supply of commodities and factors dependent on prices. A CGE model simulates the working of a market economy in which prices and quantities adjust to clear all markets.
(3663 views)
Book cover: Mechanism Design and ApproximationMechanism Design and Approximation
by
The text presents the classical theory of economic mechanism design and introduces a new theory of approximation for mechanism design. A central theme will be the tradeoff between optimality and other desirable properties such as simplicity, etc.
(2009 views)
Book cover: Discrete Choice Methods with SimulationDiscrete Choice Methods with Simulation
by - Cambridge University Press
The book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make.
(8736 views)