Stochastic Optimal Control, and U.S. Debt Crises
by Jerome Stein
Publisher: Springer 2012
Number of pages: 180
Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC) is very helpful in understanding and predicting debt crises. The mathematical analysis is applied empirically to the financial debt crisis of 2008, the crises of the 1980s and concludes with an analysis of the European debt crisis. I use SOC to derive a theoretically founded quantitative measure of an optimal, and an excessive leverage/ debt/ risk that increases the probability of a crisis. The optimal leverage balances risk against expected growth. The environment is stochastic: the capital gain, productivity of capital and interest rate are stochastic variables, and for an insurance company, such as AIG, the claims are also stochastic. I associate the housing price bubble with the growth of household debt. A bubble is dangerous insofar as it induces a non-sustainable debt. This danger is exacerbated insofar as a complex financial system is based upon it.
Home page url
Download or read it online for free here:
(multiple PDF files)
by Charles Frederick Roos - Principia Press
Contents: Static Versus Dynamic Economics; Demand for Consumer Goods; Automotive Demand for Gasoline; Demand for Agricultural Products; Demand for Capital Goods; Factors Influencing Residential Building; Growth and Decline of Industry; etc.
by Charles F. Manski - Chapman and Hall
This book presents familiar elements of estimation theory from an analog perspective. It discusses recent developments in the theory of analog estimation and presents new results that offer flexibility in empirical research.
by Michael Creel - Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Textbook for graduate econometrics, it teaches ordinary least squares, maximum likelihood estimation, restrictions and hypothesis test, stochastic regressors, exogeneity and simultaneity, numeric optimization methods, method of moments, etc.
by Wolfgang Härdle - Cambridge University Press
Nonparametric regression analysis has become central to economic theory. Hardle, by writing the first comprehensive and accessible book on the subject, contributed enormously to making nonparametric regression equally central to econometric practice.